Forging Futures: Identifying Prime Merger of Equals Candidates in 2025
In the dynamic financial services sector, a "merger of equals" (MOE) is a compelling strategic maneuver for similarly sized institutions to achieve greater scale, expand reach, diversify portfolios, and enhance shareholder value. This was highlighted by the recent news of the Synouvous and Pinnacle merger. In that vein, what other potential merger of equals could be emerging?
We decided to dive into the data using certain criteria to select future potential unions of equals. This analysis identifies four compelling MOE candidates based on the following criteria: similar asset size, complementary product offerings, minimal branch overlap, a strategic presence in high-growth Sun-belt states, and critically, no announced merger activity within the last six months. The objective is to present these strategically sound pairings and their rationale.
Note that we do not have any inside information here. This is simply an educated guess exercise on other banks that may be considering this move to stay competitive in the ever-changing US banking landscape.
The Blueprint for a Perfect Union: Our Selection Criteria
Identifying a truly synergistic merger of equals requires a multi-faceted approach, extending beyond simple financial metrics. The criteria applied in this analysis are designed to pinpoint combinations that offer both immediate operational efficiencies and long-term strategic advantages.
Similar Size (Asset Parity)
For a true "merger of equals," asset parity is crucial for balanced integration and shared governance. This analysis defines "similar size" as an asset difference of less than $10 billion, prioritizing closer alignment for a collaborative post-merger environment. This is not a hard-and-fast rule, but it is a reasonable range as we are only looking at regional and large community banks (with assets of between $50 and $250 billion).
Complementary Product Offerings
Successful MOEs leverage distinct strengths to create a diversified service portfolio. This criterion focuses on expanding market reach and attracting new customer segments, enabling cross-selling and reducing internal competition to enhance revenue potential. Hence, we exclude potential mergers where the players are competing in the same product areas. Their strengths should be complementary.
Limited Branch Overlap
Minimal overlap in physical branch networks is key for geographic expansion and operational efficiency. A low overlap minimizes costly closures and customer disruption, indicating a focus on extending market reach rather than consolidating. While there are market consolidation mergers, we are focusing more on market expansion plays where the legacy banks have little overlap (that is, their branches are not within each other's customer trade area).
Sun-Belt Footprint
An established presence in the high-growth Sun-belt states (AZ, CA, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, NV, NM, SC, TN, TX, UT, VA) offers strategic advantage. At least one bank in the pair must have a substantial footprint in these regions to enhance long-term revenue growth and resilience. That is because these are the areas with robust population growth and an important anchor for long-term growth.
No Recent M&A Activity
To ensure stability, neither bank should have been involved in any announced mergers or completed acquisitions within the last six months (February 1, 2025, to July 31, 2025). This prevents selecting institutions already undergoing complex integrations, reducing execution risk and ensuring full focus on the new merger. Besides, no institution will be aiming for another merger while preparing to execute an upcoming one.
Spotlight on Synergy: Four Prime Merger of Equals Candidates
After applying the rigorous filtering process, which included quantitative metrics for asset difference and branch overlap, a qualitative assessment of Sun-belt presence, and a stringent check for recent merger activity (disqualifying any bank that had announced or completed a merger between February 1, 2025, and July 31, 2025, as well as any non-bank entities like credit unions), four compelling merger of equals candidates have been identified.
1. The Strategic Pairing: Webster Bank National Association & Comerica Bank
The first compelling pairing is between Webster Bank National Association and Comerica Bank. These two banks have a low asset difference and a minimal branch overlap, making them a natural fit for a merger of equals.
Complementary Strengths and Offerings: Webster Bank, with its strong presence in the Northeast, offers a robust portfolio of personal, business, and commercial banking solutions, with a notable specialization in healthcare financial services. Comerica, on the other hand, is a leading commercial bank with a significant footprint in the Sun Belt states, including Texas, Arizona, and Florida. Their strengths are highly complementary: Webster's expertise in specialized sectors like healthcare combined with Comerica's established commercial lending and treasury management services creates a powerhouse for both corporate and consumer clients.
Minimal Overlap, Maximum Reach: The geographic footprints of these two banks are a key strategic advantage. Webster is focused on the Northeast (Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island), while Comerica dominates the sun-belt. A merger would create a coast-to-coast presence, providing a new and expanded market for both banks without the painful and costly process of closing redundant branches. The combined institution would be able to serve clients from New England to the Southwest, diversifying its risk and capitalizing on growth in different economic regions.
Recent Merger Activity: Both banks have been active in past mergers, but not in a "merger of equals" of this scale in recent years. Webster's merger with Sterling National Bank in 2022 was a significant step in its growth, and Comerica has had a number of acquisitions over its history. Neither is currently involved in a merger, making this a timely proposition. The combined entity would benefit from the recent integration experience of both management teams.
2. The Sun-belt Super-Merger: First Horizon Bank & Western Alliance Bank
First Horizon Bank and Western Alliance Bank represent an intriguing opportunity to create a dominant force in the high-growth sun-belt region. The data shows they have a similar size and low branch overlap, while their strategic footprints are highly synergistic.
Strategic Growth Markets: First Horizon's footprint is concentrated in the Southeast, particularly in Tennessee, Florida, and Louisiana. Western Alliance is a major player in the Southwest, with a strong presence in Nevada, Arizona, and California. Their combined footprint would create a continuous banking presence across the southern United States, from California to the Carolinas. This strategic alignment is a key driver for growth, as both banks can leverage their existing customer bases and expand into new, high-growth markets.
Diversified Product Portfolios: First Horizon offers a broad range of consumer, business, and wealth management services, and has a strong focus on community engagement. Western Alliance, while also offering a full suite of services, has a notable strength in commercial lending and specialized financial services, particularly for industries like technology and gaming. A merger would allow for cross-selling of these specialized services to each other's customers, creating a more diversified and resilient business model.
Merger Readiness: The most significant recent event for First Horizon was the collapse of its merger with TD Bank, which means it is no longer engaged in an active merger process. This makes it an ideal partner for a new opportunity. Western Alliance has not been in a major merger of equals recently, and its strong capital position makes it a viable partner.
3. The Heartland Powerhouse: Cadence Bank & BOKF National Association
Cadence Bank and BOKF National Association (BOK Financial) form a complementary pairing that could create a strong regional bank focused on the American heartland and energy-rich states.
Geographic and Commercial Synergy: Cadence Bank has a strong branch network across the Southeast and Texas, while BOKF is a major player in Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, and the Rocky Mountain region. Their footprints have minimal overlap but a high degree of complementarity, especially in Texas, where both banks have a strong presence. This overlap could be leveraged to consolidate some operations while expanding the combined entity's reach. BOKF's specialization in the energy sector is a major value-add that could be scaled across Cadence's existing footprint, particularly in the Gulf Coast states.
Product Offering Expansion: Cadence has a wide range of consumer and commercial products, including a strong wealth management division. BOKF is well-known for its deep expertise in commercial lending and capital markets, especially in the energy and natural resources sectors. A merger would allow for the integration of these capabilities, creating a more comprehensive offering for both individual and commercial clients.
Recent Merger Activity: Cadence Bank was formed through a merger with BancorpSouth and Cadence Bancorporation in 2021. BOKF has been more focused on organic growth, with its last major acquisition being in 2008. Both banks are not currently involved in a merger, but their differing approaches to growth would provide a useful combination of strategic and operational experience.
4. The Northeast & Midwest Connection: Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company (M&T Bank) & The Huntington National Bank
The final pairing is a merger of two strong regional players with strategic geographic footprints and complementary service offerings.
Leveraging Geographic Strengths: M&T Bank has a strong, historical presence in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with branches from New York to Virginia. The Huntington National Bank is a dominant force in the Midwest, including Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana. The branch overlap between these two institutions is extremely low. A merger would instantly create a major bank with a continuous footprint from the Midwest to the Eastern seaboard. This strategic alignment would allow the combined bank to effectively serve clients and businesses across a large and economically diverse portion of the United States.
Enhanced Product and Service Offerings: M&T is well-regarded for its commercial banking, treasury management, and wealth management services. Huntington has a strong reputation for consumer banking, mortgages, and small business lending. A merger would allow for the seamless integration of these strengths, providing a more comprehensive suite of products to a wider customer base. The combined entity could leverage M&T's commercial expertise to grow Huntington's business clients and use Huntington's consumer banking scale to expand M&T's retail presence.
Merger Readiness: Both banks have a history of strategic acquisitions. Most recently, M&T Bank completed its acquisition of People's United Financial, Inc. in 2022. Huntington acquired TCF Financial Corporation in 2021. Both of these transactions were large and successful, providing a wealth of recent integration experience for a new merger of equals. As neither bank is currently involved in a major merger, they are well-positioned to embark on a new strategic consolidation that would create a new, powerful banking franchise.
These four examples demonstrate the strategic rationale for a merger of equals. When two banks with similar size, complementary offerings, and a synergistic geographic footprint come together, they can create a new entity that is greater than the sum of its parts. By carefully selecting a partner and executing a thoughtful integration, these institutions could unlock significant value for shareholders, employees, and the communities they serve.